The Human Population Can Earth

Before you read any farther down this website I want you to click on this link "World Population". Please write down the entire number and keep it beside you as you read through down this page.

Overpopulation is a very real problem, or at least that is the popular word on the street. It seems that some countries, such as Japan and some European countries are experiencing a near population decline. The purpose of this website is to figure out if overpopulation is a problem and if Earth is, in fact, experiencing an overpopulation of humans. These are questions you will have to answer for yourself because I only mean to explore the facts involved. If you haven't clicked on the link above yet, please do so now and take note of the population prior to reading any farther. Make sure you write it down!

To begin, a very basic question must first be answered. What is a population? It consists of the "members of the same species that live together in the same area at the same time" (Raven). A population, then, lives in a community, which is "all the populations of different species that live and interact together within an area at the same time" (Raven). A community then lives in an ecosystem, which consists of communities and the abiotic (non-living things such as water) environment interacting with one another. Using a farm as an example, a cow is a part of a population on the farm. The population of cows plus the chickens, humans, goats, corn, and insects, are all a part of the farm community. Then, add the abiotic things, such as water in the lake that the animals and plants use and the wind to move the water wheel, to have an ecosystem. All of Earth, which includes all this farm ecosystem and many other ecosystems, is the biosphere.

Humans obviously do not live alone in the biosphere. Plants, animals, and other organisms play a vital role in the process of life, and all populations need the biotic and abiotic environment to survive. Humans cannot live alone, so it is in the best interest of humans for humans to help preserve Earth. Preserving Earth includes many aspects from limiting pollution to population control. Everything is limited, including food and space so a population cannot grow unlimited and unchecked. All populations are affected by other populations from food sources or even predators to human activities such as habitat destruction and renewal or building and wars. Therefore, if the human population were to exceed Earth's carrying capacity, "the largest population that can be maintained for an indefinite period of time by a particular environment, assuming no changes in that environment" it could mean extinction for many living organisms on Earth, including humans (Raven).

In order to discover whether or not the human population is dangerously high or not, how is the human population calculated? First, the birth rate is considered. This is the "number of births per 1000 people per year" (Raven). Then, the death rate, "the number of deaths per 1000 people per year" is subtracted from the birth rate to reach the growth rate (Raven). The growth rate in 2001 was 1.4% and was expected to be at 1.9%, so it is decreasing (3). The human population is estimated at 6 billion (2) and at a 1.9% growth rate, the population would double in 50 years. Fortunately, the birth rate is declining and the growth rate is declining as a result. That does not mean, however, that the population is declining. The death rate continues to decline as well due to improved health conditions and advancements in medicine, and the birth rate remains higher than the death rate, so the human population continues to rise.

To find out the growth rates of individual countries around the world click here.

Now, how does the human population grow and why is this important? It grows geometrically as stated by Thomas Malthus in 1789 (3). This basically means that instead of growing arithmetically (1, 2, 3, 4...), it grows by doubling (1, 2, 4, 8, 16...). This is displayed by the smiley faces to the right. It is important because understanding how the population grows can help one to understand why the population grows so fast and why it is important to control the population growth rate.

Malthus believed the human population would eventually begin to decline because the growth rate was much faster than the food production rate. He figured humans would experience famine, and thus the population would be kept in check. However, technological advances improved the production of food to the point where there is more than enough food to feed the world human population (keep in mind here that certain places over produce and waste while other places may not produce enough for its human life). Malthus may have misjudged the food production possibilities (but who can foresee the future), but his population growth idea is very real. As early as the 1780's prominent people, such as Malthus, were calling for controls on population due to geometrical growth. At the time, Malthus was suggesting that people not marry until a later age, but he stated that the "postponement of marriage would only result in vice, misery, and degradation of character, because premarital sexual relations would occur" (Landreth). Fortunately, birth control devices came along, and family planning programs were set up to combat overpopulation.

Then, the next thing we must ask is, is there enough food to go around. According to the American Chemical Society, "approximately 24,000 people die daily of undernourishment". There are countless stories of underdeveloped nations experiencing famine and malnourishment, yet "it is estimated that at current production levels there is enough food to provide for 6.1 billion people" (Stanitski). The current population is about 6 billion, so why are people starving?

The problem is obviously not that there isn't enough food. The problem is that the food is unevenly distributed. Food production is great in the United States. In fact the United States government buys crops from farmers in order to keep them in business because of the excess crops they produce. It is then set aside to waste away. Some farmers are actually paid to not farm a portion of their land due to the excess food produced by American farmers. Some African countries, on the other hand, have been experiencing prolonged droughts, so the food they can produce is very limited to none, yet they experience very high birth rates. In countries that have very limited space for growing and producing food, a population growth is very undesirable. For example, Egypt is mostly desert land, therefore people tend to live crowded in thin strips of land next to the Nile. Space for food production is very limited, so Egypt has a family planning program to limit the number of children each family has. "The average number of children an Egyptian woman has was 3.3 in 2000, which was down from 7.0 in the 1960's" (Raven). However, Egypt is a success story that is still in progress.

Family planning programs, like the one Egypt implemented, include such ideas as birth control and education. For example, condoms are passed out to Africans to help limit the number of children they are having and also to battle the AIDS epidemic. Also, women in these overpopulated areas are being educated about their bodies and their rights. Family planning programs often stress waiting to have children until the potential parents are financially capable to care for their child. Passing out condoms and other forms of birth control help overpopulated areas control their hunger problem because less people is less mouths to feed.

This brings me to my next point. The poorer countries around the world that are experiencing food shortages are also the same countries with populations booms. "Approximately 80% of the world's population lives in less developed countries" (Raven). At one time it was considered desirable to have an increasing population. A high population meant economic advantages. However, it seems this trend is beginning to fade. The chart below (the first three sections were taken from a book entitled Sociology) shows population trends. It shows the 10 largest cities in three different years. The numbers are in millions. In 1970 New York City was the largest city at just over 16 million people. In 1985 the trend of a high population relating to economic advantage continued somewhat with Tokyo/Yokohama being number one with almost 19 million people, yet Mexico City entered the picture at number two with just over 17 million people, and their economic status was no where near that of New York city, which dropped to number four. Then in 1993 the populations were projected for 2000. It shows that Mexico City reached the number one biggest city position with a population of 26 million, followed by Sao Paulo, Tokyo/Yokohama, and New York. Another thing worth noticing on the chart is that in 1970, London, Paris, and even Los Angeles was in the top 10 biggest cities. By 1985 only London remained at number 9, and by 2000 New York City was the only western city to make the chart. The real 2000 chart, however, was taken from nationmaster.com. It shows that Seoul made a huge jump from number 10 in 1985 to number one in 2000. Tokyo/Yokohama went to second followed by Mexico City and then New York. The real numbers for 2000 do show Los Angeles at number 8, which is up from 1985 where the city did not make the list. If you're interested in the top 100 cities in 2000 click on the nationmaster link above. I think it is interesting to note that there are 22 cities with populations over 10 million in 2000, where as there were only 6 in 1985 and 4 in 1970. That's an incredible jump.

1970	1985	2000 (projected in 1993)	2000
New York 16.29	Tokyo/Yokohama 18.82	Mexico City 26	Seoul 34.7
Tokyo/Yokohama 14.91	Mexico City 17.30	Sao Paulo 25	Tokyo/Yokohama 33.7
Shanghai 11.41	Sao Paulo 15.88	Tokyo/Yokohama 24	Mexico City 21.8
London 10.59	New York 15.64	New York 20	New York 21.7
Mexico City 9.12	Shanghai 11.96	Calcutta 16.52	Sao Paulo 20
Buenos Aires 8.55	Calcutta 10.95	Bombay 16	Mumbai 18.8
Los Angeles 8.43	Buenos Aires 10.88	Shanghai 14.30	Delhi 18.1
Paris 8.34	Rio de Janeiro 10.37	Seoul 13.77	Los Angeles 17.4
Peking 8.29	London 10.36	Teheran 13.58	Jakarta 16.3
Osaka/Kobe 7.61	Seoul 10.28	Rio de Janeiro 13.26	Moscow15.3

This is a satellite picture of Earth at night. It depicts highly populated areas, but notice that the Eastern United States is brighter than China and India. This is because of a higher economic status in the United States, not necessarily a high population density.

This picture, on the other hand, shows the highest populated areas of the world. The darker the red, the higher the population. Notice that India and China have the most dark purple. Interestingly, the United States, though listed third on the map below, has very little purple. This is because the population is more spread out in the United States than it is in these other countries. It is worth noting, however, that New York City is showing up in purple because it does have a high population density, which is the number of people living an a certain area at a certain time.

Population by country, on the other hand, is a little different. As can be seen on the chart below taken from Internetworld, China has the highest population of any country with about 20% of the world population, yet is is growing economically. However, it's economic status is rising, and it's birth rate is declining with a 1.1% birth rate, so economic status seems to lower a country's population growth rate. This is because of China's family planning program which allows the Chinese citizens to only have one child. Also worth noting, if you click on the Internetworld link above you will see the larger version of this chart. Japan's growth rate is 0.1%, which brings me to the reason I selected this topic.

China	1,288,307,100
India	1,088,056,200
United States	293,271,500
Indonesia	221,777,700
Brazil	179,383,500
Pakistan	157,056,000
Nigeria	154,491,100
Russia	146,697,800
Bangladesh	133,581,700
Japan	127,853,600

Throughout the years people have been stressing that the world has a problem with overpopulation. As explained above, economic advantage is no longer being associated with a higher population, or is it? In an article in The Scotsman, Japan is about to experience a population decline and the government is attempting to encourage people to have more children. Japan is not the only country experiencing a near decline, however. Germany, and Italy are also having population problems. Why is this a problem though? If the world is overpopulated is it not a good thing that a country is beginning to have a population decline? In the terms of immediate effects, possibly. However, Germany and Italy both have ageing populations. Similar to the United States, these countries both have national welfare plans for their elderly citizens. The problem with a population decline is that now the smaller populated generations must support the larger generations. Pensions have been cut and even frozen. Even France, which has the highest birth rate in Europe, is concerned about future finance problems related to their ageing population. The picture to the right is of Tokyo.

Also, the United States has reason for concern over population decline. The United States continues to be in a period of population growth, however, due to some of the baby boom population still being in their reproductive years and immigration. Why the concern over population decline, then? The Social Security system in the United States is a pay as you go system. Basically, people pay into the system now, and that money will go the present elderly population. Then, when the people paying now get older, the children of today will be paying into the system. The problem is that there was a "Baby Boom" from 1945 until 1962. They are now at retirement age, and the present working population, which is outnumbered by the retirees, must pay their Social Security. If you're interested in this click here for more information on Social Security. Also, the United States has been able to create enough new jobs to allow for immigration. Without immigration many lower paying positions would not be filled because most Americans will not and cannot work for minimum wage. The picture to the left is New York City.

If some countries have near population declines and some countries have population booms does it balance out? The answer is no it does not balance out. As stated previously, nearly 80% of the world's population is in developing nations (also known as third world countries). Those countries that cannot handle population growth rates as high as they are, are outgrowing the industrialized countries that can handle such population growth rates. The United States, though the biggest polluter, can handle the pollution that comes with larger populations. For example, New York City has a large sewage system, yet they are able to drink fresh water. In Mexico City, pictured to the right, the sewage is open and runs untreated into rivers. This is just one example of the environmental problems that comes with these highly populated third world cities. According to Pacione major environmental problems in these cities include ambient air pollution (caused by industrialization, increased motorized fleet, and energy pricing), indoor air pollution (caused by low-quality fuels, poor ventilation, and passive smoking), surface water pollution (caused by poor regulations, industrial waste disposal practices, and urban run-off), groundwater pollution (caused by poor regulations, poor waste disposal, and unsustainable extraction), degradation of forested and agricultural land (caused by uncontrolled urban growth, mining activities, and heavy metals pollution), and solid waste pollution (caused by poor management, and the high price). These problems cause health problems such as lung disease and cancers and economic costs such as health care costs and flooding.

However these problems are not limited to third world countries. They are existent all over the world. Besides these problems we must always keep in mind that Earth has limited space and limited resources. If Mexico City is overpopulated it leaves less space for everyone else. If I fill my gas tank up every day (or even once ever in my life) it leaves less gas for everyone else. If you eat a lot over Thanksgiving break (or even throw out a lot), it leaves less for everyone else. If you have learned nothing at all from this website, at least take this one piece of advice from it. Don't take Earth for granted. It has a carrying capacity, and I suppose we'll never what that carrying capacity really is until it is too late. The picture to the left is Delhi, a third world city. Click on the picture for a bigger image of Delhi. You can clearly see a difference between this and that of New York City, for example. I recommend looking through the cities on the site listed below. They're very nice pictures and it should give you an understanding of just how huge the human population is.

Click here for more pictures of the World's Biggest Cities.

That being said, all the information above must have you thinking life is looking pretty gloom and thinking that Thomas Malthus was correct that famine is inevitable. However, the birth rate is decreasing and technology is increasing. The population continues to grow, but at a slower rate. Family planning is being stressed in many countries, including the United States and African countries. The overpopulation problem is real and serious, but it is not hopeless. Going into this project, I was certain I would find out that humans were doomed to extinction. I searched through many books and websites, and I have found that the situation is hopeful. People are aware of the problem and are actively trying to solve it. We can all help in the project by either feeding someone who is hungry, donating to to the organizations below, helping educate, or if you're really interested you could travel to Africa, for example, and do something as simple as passing out condoms or food. Though something is hopeful, you must still keep reality in check. People do suffer around the world due to overpopulation, yet most Americans experience a very comfortable lifestyle. You may think everyone should have it as easy as we do, but if everyone had all the luxuries that we have Earth's carrying capacity would be cut in half.

If you are interested in helping any of the causes mentioned above I have listed a few very good websites. If you don't like these, there are many out there, and I recommend you do a search and find out how you can either help feed the hungry or help control the population.

Speaking of calculations, now that you have finished reading this site, I want to you click on this link again, "World Population". Write down the new number and keep your findings for when I give my presentation in class. I will be asking you a question about it.