Global Warming To Devastate Europe First
Hiedi Iudicello
International Studies
What exactly is Global Warming ?
The definition of global warming states that global warming is an increase in the average temperature of the Earth's surface, which occurs following an increase in greenhouse gases. (This definition is short and sweet so therefore I will now give you the unabridged version. Don't worry there are pictures!)
In order to fully understand the concept of global warming we need to go back to the basics.
First we are going to start with :
The Greenhouse Effect
The greenhouse effect is a necessary phenomenon that keeps all Earth's heat from escaping to the outer atmosphere. Without the natural greenhouse effect it is certain that we would all be lost. Temperatures on Earth would be much lower than they are now, and the existence of life on this planet would not be possible. The global average temperature would drop precipitously 33 degrees from its current 15° to -18°C. The Earth would become an ice planet. (1)
So how does it all work?
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A Greenhouse A man made structure where natural sunlight comes in through glass or plastic panels, here most of the sunlight is trapped and the temperature and humidity is therefore controlled to provide ideal growing conditions.
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The Greenhouse Effect Sunlight enters the Earth's atmosphere, passing through the blanket of greenhouse gases. As it reaches the Earth's surface, land, water, and biosphere absorb the sunlight’s energy. Once absorbed, this energy is sent back into the atmosphere. Some of the energy passes back into space, but much of it remains trapped in the atmosphere by the greenhouse gases, causing our world to heat up. |
Earth's Atmosphere is the layer of gases surrounding the planet Earth and retained by the Earth's gravity. It consists of Nitrogen, Oxygen small amounts of Argon , Carbon Dioxide , Water Vapor, and other gases The atmosphere protects life on Earth by absorbing ultraviolet solar radiation and reducing temperature extremes between day and night.
Greenhouse Gases are gases that absorb heat re-radiated from the surface of the Earth. The greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide, chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, and water vapor.
So far the greenhouse effect doesn't sound bad does it? Well that's because the greenhouse effect isn't a bad thing. But when a little thing called the industrial revolution began adding man made emissions to the process the problem of global warming became apparent. Look at the increase of these gases from 1750 until just a few years ago in 2000: (Sorry the words are small, Measurements are done by pph: pounds per household).
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Carbon Dioxide |
Methane |
Nitrous Oxide |
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source for charts: (2)
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Carbon Dioxide Production |
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Carbon dioxide is a colorless odorless gas. Carbon Dioxide is emitted into the air as humans exhale, burn fossil fuels for energy, and deforest the planet. Every year humans add over 30 billion tons of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere by these processes, and it is up thirty percent since 1750.(2) |
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Fossil Fuels were created chiefly by the decay of plants from millions of years ago. We use coal, oil and natural gas to generate electricity, heat our homes, power our factories and run our cars. These fossil fuels contain carbon, and when they are burned, they combine with oxygen, forming carbon dioxide.(2) |
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Methane Production |
| Methane is a colorless, odorless, flammable gas. It is formed when plants decay and where there is very little air. It is often called swamp gas because it is abundant around water and swamps. Bacteria that breakdown organic matter in wetlands and bacteria that are found in cows, sheep, goats, buffalo, termites, and camels produce methane naturally. Bacteria in the gut of the animal break down food and convert some of it to methane. When these animals belch, methane is released. In one day, a cow can emit ½ pound of methane into the air.(2) |
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Since 1750, methane has doubled, and could double again by 2050. Each year we add 350-500 million tons of methane to the air by raising livestock, coal mining, drilling for oil and natural gas, rice cultivation, and garbage sitting in landfills. It stays in the atmosphere for only 10 years, but traps 20 times more heat than carbon dioxide.(2)
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Nitrous Oxide Production |
| Nitrous oxide is another colorless greenhouse gas, however, it has a sweet odor . It is primarily used as an anesthetic because it deadens pain and for this characteristic is called “laughing gas.” This gas is released naturally from oceans and by bacteria in soils. Nitrous oxide gas risen by more than 15% since 1750. Each year we add 7-13 million tons into the atmosphere by using nitrogen based fertilizers, disposing of human and animal waste in sewage treatment plants, automobile exhaust, and other sources not yet identified.(2) |
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Nitrogen based fertilizer use has doubled in the past 15 years. These fertilizers provide nutrients for crops; however, when they breakdown in the soil, nitrous oxide is released into the atmosphere. In automobiles, nitrous oxide is released at a much lower rate than carbon dioxide, because there is more carbon in gasoline than nitrogen. It is important to reduce emissions because the nitrous oxide we release today will still be trapped in the atmosphere 100 years from now.(2) |
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Fluorocarbon Production |
| Fluorocarbons is a general
term for any group of synthetic organic compounds that contain fluorine and
carbon. Many of these compounds, such as chlorofluorocarbons(CFC’s), can be
easily converted from gas to liquid or liquid to gas. Because of these
properties, CFC’s can be used in aerosol cans, refrigerators, and air
conditioners. (2) |
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Studies in the 1970’s showed that when CFC’s are emitted into the atmosphere, they break down molecules in the Earth's ozone layer. Since then, the use of CFC’s has significantly decreased and they are banned from production in the United States. The substitute for CFC’s are hydrofluorocarbons (HFC's). HFC’s do not harm or breakdown the ozone molecule, but they do trap heat in the atmosphere, making it a greenhouse gas, aiding in global warming. HFC’s are used in air conditioners and refrigerators. (2) |
Now that we understand the effect that we all have on the environment it is time to look at how the changing environment is/will be effecting us.
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Rising Temperatures |
| Worldwide temperature measurements indicate that global mean annual surface temperatures have increased about 0.3 to 0.6°C during the last 150 years. Since 1975, the increase of the 5-year mean temperature is about 0.5°C - a rate that is faster than for any previous period of equal length in the instrumental record. Global surface temperatures in 1998 were the warmest since reliable instrumental measurements began, and seven of the ten warmest years occurred in the 1990s. Temperature reconstructions using proxy climate records such as tree rings, fossil pollen, corals and ice cores and borehole measurements indicate that the 20th century warming is unusual relative to the last 400 to 600 years. (3) |
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Why this is Bad A warming of global mean temperature will result in an increase in the frequency of warm temperature extremes at all time scales (e.g., days, seasons, and years). Regionally and locally, a small upward shift in mean temperature can cause relatively large increases in the number of extremely hot days, increasing the likelihood of "killer" heat waves during the warm season (Karl et al., 1997). In temperate climates, for example, the number of very hot days would approximately double for an increase of 2 to 3°C in average summer temperatures. (3) |
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Rising Sea Levels |
| Global compilations indicate that the wastage of mountain glaciers during the last century has raised sea level by between 0.2 to 0.4 mm/yr, or roughly 20% of the observed change (e.g,. Warrick et al., 1996;. By 2100, sea level is estimated to rise by an additional 46 to 58 cm, with an estimated total range of 20 to 86 cm. Over half of the change will likely be from thermal expansion of ocean water, another 30% from melting of mountain glaciers, and 10% from melting of parts of the Greenland ice sheet . (3) |
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Why this is Bad Coastal wetlands and lowlands, beaches and barrier islands, and ocean islands and atolls are especially vulnerable to rising seas. These areas are critical habitat for large numbers of coastal bird and fish species, and provide ecosystem services such as pollution filtration, sediment trapping, erosion mitigation, and flood control. Wetlands in most areas have been able to keep pace with historic sea-level rise by accreting sediment and growing vertically and by moving inland with the encroaching sea. But the accelerated rates projected for the next 100 years may be too fast for natural accretion and migration to keep up. The costs of responding to a sea-level rise of 50 cm by 2100 are estimated at between $20 and $200 billion in the United States alone. The wide range in this estimate reflects the different options, extent, and timing of response. Adaptation measures such as the construction of bulkheads, dikes, and pumping systems can protect property, but these measures are likely to result in further loss of wetlands and beaches with detrimental effects on fish and wildlife, recreation, and tourism.(3) |
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Melting Glaciers |
| There is widespread evidence that glaciers are retreating in many mountain areas of the world. Since 1850 the glaciers of the European Alps have lost about 30 to 40% of their surface area and about half of their volume . Similarly, glaciers in the New Zealand Southern Alps have lost 25% of their area over the last 100 years , and glaciers in several regions of central Asia have been retreating since the 1950s. For three glaciers in the US Pacific Northwest, the seven-year average rate of ice loss was higher for the period since 1989 than for any other period studied. Glacial retreat is also prevalent in the higher elevations of the tropics. Glaciers on Mt. Kenya and Kilimanjaro have lost over 60% of their area in the last century, and accelerated retreat has been reported for the Peruvian Andes. (3) |
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Why this is Bad The glaciers will initially provide extra runoff from melting; but as the ice diminishes, the runoff will wane. Also, because revegetation of terrain is slower at high altitudes, deglaciated areas will be subject to erosion and decreased stability, heightening the need to protect buildings, roads, communication links, and other structures. For areas dependent on tourism, uncertain snow cover during peak winter sports seasons, natural hazards such as rock and ice falls, or loss of scenic beauty are of particular concern. An example of the type of scenario that could become more frequent occurred during the warm summer of 1998, when a ski area in the Tyrolean Alps was forced to close a lift after melting ice dislodged rocks and soil, destabilizing the peak. (3) |
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Arctic and Antarctic Warming |
| There is substantial evidence that the Arctic climate is warming . Average annual temperature in the Arctic has increased by about 1° C over the last century -- a rate that is approximately double that of global average temperatures. Winter temperature trends show about a 2° C warming trend over nearly 100 years. In both cases, the century-long warming is characterized by long-term fluctuations, with rapid warming in the last three decades. This recent warming has been accompanied by decreases in the extent and thickness of sea ice, increases in borehole temperatures in permafrost and permafrost thawing, and later freeze-up and earlier break-up dates for river and lake ice. (3) |
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Why this is Bad The indigenous peoples of
the Arctic depend heavily on the natural resources and healthy functioning
of ecosystems. The Yupik and other groups have already experienced the
impacts of a changing, warming Arctic climate. They report delays, for
example, in the formation of sea ice as well as early melt and deterioration
that have delayed or decreased the length of the hunting season. They also
have observed the prevalence of more rain, fog, and cloudy skies during the
"drying season" (spring and summer), when traditional foods are air-dried
for storage for the coming months. |
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(1)
Future Global Warming Predictions For Pa
www.ucsusa.org/greatlakes/glregionpen.html
Predictions for the rest of the world
Finally Here's Where my article comes in to play
According to a recent report done by the European Environment Agency. Recent flooding killed about 80 people in 11 countries, affected more than 600,000 and caused economic losses of at least $18.5 billion. More than 20,000 deaths, many of them elderly, were recorded during the 2003 heat wave, which also caused up to 30 percent of harvests in many southern countries to fail. Melting shrank glaciers in the Alps by 10 percent in 2003 alone and it is predicted that three-quarters of them could be gone altogether by 2050. European sea levels have been rising by 0.03-0.12 inches a year over the last century, and the rate of increase could be two to four times faster during this century. The report also said the 1990s were the warmest decade on record, and the three hottest years recorded — 1998, 2002 and 2003 — occurred in the last six years, with the average global temperature now rising at almost 0.36 degrees per decade. (4)
The past pan-European weather extreme has been another sign that man made global warming is proceeding apace. Climate change is a reality, and its feared catastrophic effects are becoming more visible than ever. The 2003 European heat wave has caused huge economic damage to farmers while tremendous forest fires in the south of Europe have destroyed large ecosystems with serious effects on the tourism sector. (5)
The floods from August 2002 hit hardest in the Czech Republic, where 15 people died and 220,000 were evacuated. In Prague a flood this severe would normally be expected only once every 500 years; in the south of the country it was a once-in-1000-year event, and some areas received half their expected annual rainfall in just four days. (6)
Developing countries will suffer most from climate change, as there economies are much more vulnerable. The 2003 heat wave and the central European floods are peanuts compared to what developing countries will have to face, with hundreds of thousands of people dying from droughts, mud slides, storms and floods or suffering from tremendous economic losses. This is particularly invidious as the rich countries are mostly responsible for climate change, with for example the average American accounting for ten times more carbon dioxide emissions than the average Indian. (4)
Is Anything being done about this huge problem?
The Politics of it all
Kyoto
In an accord reached at a United Nations meeting in Kyoto, Japan, in December 1997, 84 countries agreed on the need for an average 5.2 per cent reduction in industrialized countries’ 1990 emissions by the year 2012, to slow global warming due to the greenhouse effect. The reductions are not the same for all countries but depend on the degree of economic development, population, climate and size. Canada committed to cut its 1990 emissions by 6 per cent, Britain by 12.5 per cent, Germany by 21 per cent and the United States by 7 per cent. Developing countries face no immediate reduction target. The Protocol will become international law when governments representing 55 countries emitting 55 per cent of the industrialized world’s emissions ratify it. The Kyoto Protocol’s guiding principles are economic efficiency, environmental integrity and support for sustainable development.
The treaty not only binds the industrialized countries to cut their greenhouse gases; it also sets up a series of clever, complex, but essential mechanisms, such as the trading of emissions permits and the joint implementation of CO{-2}-reduction projects, which will allow countries to co-operate to reduce their emissions. (7)
Recent Developments
As stated above, in order for the Kyoto Protocol to go into effect it must be ratified by 55 countries that account for 55% of global emissions in 1990. The United States, China and some other big industrial nations have rejected the treaty. However a recent article from cnn.com stated that the Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkov has signed an order approving the ratification of the Protocol now it is up to the Russian Parliament for ratification.
Are You Embarassed?
| Although Americans account for only 5 percent of the world's population, we generate about 25 percent of the world's annual greenhouse gas emissions. That's earned the United States the label of the world's worst polluter. In 2002, the United States spewed more than 5.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide, about a third more than the 3.8 million metric tons emitted by 28 industrialized Western European nations combined. Russia, the former USSR and several former Eastern bloc countries (all of which have old and heavily polluting factories and power plants) together emitted about 3 million metric tons in 2002, according to U.S. Department of Energy figures. |
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| Bush: Opposes the Kyoto Protocol on
the grounds that the United States can't afford to cut carbon dioxide below
1990 levels by 2012 and that the pact doesn't demand enough reductions for
developing nations. Opposes mandatory reductions in carbon dioxide. Has
committed to reducing by 18 percent over the next decade the ratio of
greenhouse gas emissions to gross domestic product. Commits to increases in
research funds, but distances himself from government studies linking global
warming to human activities. The Bush administration decided the EPA didn't
have authority to regulate carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas, as an air
pollutant. (8) The league of conservation voters began grading presidents in 1990 -- gave Bush it's first "F," and called him "the worst environmental president in modern history." Bush's father earned a D+; Clinton got a C-. U.S. refusal to support the treaty stirred blistering criticism from abroad. However, President Bush correctly calculated that - unlike the Russia Duma, which is certain to support Putin's decision to ratify the pact - the U.S. Senate simply will not ratify the Kyoto treaty as written. But international dismay with Bush on the global-warming issue doesn't just center on the Kyoto treaty; it's really about Bush's decision not to take up the issue in any other way. The United States has failed to take any of several steps to slow the rate at which it emits carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. (9) Kerry: Opposes the Kyoto Protocol, saying the United States cannot meet the cuts assigned to it by the deadline; wants to meet again with other nations to come up with a practical response for reducing greenhouse gases. Wants mandatory reductions of carbon dioxide emissions, including from power plants and vehicles. (8)
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Climate Steward Act
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Sens. John McCain, an Arizona Republican, and Joe Lieberman, a Connecticut
Democrat. The plan calls for the United States to cut greenhouse gas
emissions back to 2000 levels by 2010. The plan failed 55-43 earlier this
year, but McCain has been pushing for a second vote. (10) Under both the Kyoto Treaty on Climate Change and the McCain-Lieberman Climate Stewardship Act, companies with low carbon-dioxide emissions will be allowed to sell "emissions credits" to help other companies offset their higher emissions. (11)
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What we are doing
Alternative Energy:
Refers to a host of non-carbon based providers of fuel and electricity. Clearly, the world's dependence on fossil fuels has resulted in a mass of environmental, social, and economic problems. Cleaner, cheaper, more reliable sources of energy are available for use by factories, cars and trucks, buildings. Solar, geothermal, tidal, hydroelectric and wind power are all sources of energy that do not involve the use of fossil fuels for power. Along with other types of alternative energy such as fuel cells and biomass they can help lead to a cleaner planet.
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Help out with Some Small Steps
(That was a lot of info, i hope i didn't bore you too much!)
Links
Greenhouse gas calculator Hybrid cars Europe's vineyards
EPA kids site NREL Recycling in Pa
Sinking islands sinking 2 Kyoto stuff
Bibliography
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Union of Concerned Scientists. (2003, November 10). Early Warning Signs of Global Warming. <http://www.ucsusa.org/global_environment/global_warming/page.cfm?pageID=506>(2004, October).
Olsen, J. (2004, August 19). Europe Learns Global Warming Consequences. <http://www.detnews.com/2004/nation/0408/19/a11-247270.htm> (2004, October).
Friends of the Earth Europe. Climate Change. <http://www.foeeurope.org/climate/> (2004, October).
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Jane, K. (2004, October 7).
Environment clearly divides Bush and
Kerry
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(2004, October).
Post, Denver. (2004, October 6). US Failing on Pollution Policy. <http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1006-27.htm> (2004, October).
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Peters, E. (2004, September 26). Hot air About Global Warming. <http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/news/opinion/9758530.htm?1c> (2004, October).
